书籍 Fooled by Randomness的封面

Fooled by Randomness

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

出版社

Penguin

出版时间

2007-05-01

ISBN

9780141031484

评分

★★★★★

标签

经济

书籍介绍

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The international bestseller Fooled by Randomness has been p...

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目录
Pt. I Solon's warning
1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? 5
2 A bizarre accounting method 22
3 A mathematical meditation on history 43
4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual 70

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用户评论
小概率事件隐含大趋势
学数理统计的孩子表示对这种吹水耍嘴皮子的书欣赏不能。。。。orz。。
如果抛开模型简述和纯金融分析只看观点,也算简单易懂。故事有趣,内容值得探讨,主要是给我未来的“酸葡萄心理”提供了一些理论安慰:)
几乎没有一章是废话,阅读还不枯燥。这是2014年读过最好的书。它解释股价是随机性?那么多的股神?为什么有些人能预测等等。我真的喜欢这本书!
观点新颖,论述流畅,概率论与数理统计只是其解释观点的工具,使得更有说服力。
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