书籍 Big Debt Crises的封面

Big Debt Crises

Ray Dalio

出版社

Bridgewater

出版时间

2018-10-15

ISBN

9781732689800

评分

★★★★★

标签

经济

书籍介绍

"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke

"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers

"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson

"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner

On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.

As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.

The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.

目录
Acknowledgement
Introduction 7
Part 1: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle 9
How I Think about Credit and Debt 9
The Template for the Archetypal Long-Term/Big Debt Cycle 13

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用户评论
后面的广告有点出戏……
魏玛共和国和29年大萧条的例子非常清晰。学了这么多年二战史,竟然是看了dalio的书之后才终于明白了一直不明白的事。算是一个意外的收获。在理论方面,dalio的模型其实没有什么特殊的。只是更量化统一的说明了,在危机时放水时必须的,货币贬值是必须的。其他的道德和政治争议,比如放水是不是便宜了黑心资本家,比如说是不是要给政府或银行一个教训,这些争论都要往后放。因为在当下,这些因素都只会让经济每况愈下,无法回复。但他整理的历史也侧面说明了,在真实世界里,做“正确的放水决定”是很困难的,政策执行人常常会反复,所以一旦进入危机周期,每一次不彻底的政策带来的部分反弹,都难掩整体的下行趋势。
关于宏观经济和货币政策。逻辑清晰,信息量很大,值得再读
干货满满。deflationary/inflationary debt crises的两个框架搭得很好,三个具体例子(德国1918,美国1928,美国2007)是对框架详尽的运用,分析详细,包括从宏观、政策制定者、和普罗大众的各个角度进行,比较全面。扫过后面48个例子概况。
这是一本全景纪实书,反映了桥水对债务危机的研究。虽然是一家之言,但是可以拿来跟《大而不倒》交叉看。第一部分的理论和第二部分的案例教学是精华,Ray保持了足够的中立性。
只有第一章细细看过,后面第二章和第三章的例子就没怎么细看了。结合刚刚看过的《第二次启蒙》还挺有贯通感:总的来说,大概所有的cycles都是因人类自己的短视而导致的,而人的短视基本上还是因为人类的短命(想象一下,如果我能活一千年,那我对于用未来二十年的痛苦来换取未来两百年的幸福会怎么想)。在这个基础上,所有的机制都有自己的矛盾和缺陷。而在一种无奈的囚徒困境下,个人只能看自己这短暂的一生恰好是在一个cycle的上升繁荣期还是下降衰退期,而能够靠自己能力改变的真的不多。
佐证了cash is trash
个人觉得case study部分比较有趣。前面的理论铺垫可以看作者更近期写的MMT和MP3的小短文。
这本书拖拖拉拉看了有一年。可能看这么久的原因也是写的比较难懂。我觉得还是有点拖沓的,不过好处可能是帮助我形成了对债务的敏感性,和对于现今通货膨胀等等的关注,不关注大局势,我等小民只有被收割的命运。
虽然英文原版没坚持读完